STAGE 4 GIRO PREVIEW

The Photo Finish Pain Continues

Stage 3 delivered the kind of emotional whiplash that only the Giro can produce. The Old Bull and the Young Bucks found themselves split on either side of the finish line photo, close enough to feel the draft of the winner but still empty handed. Three days in Bulgaria have given us crashes, chaos, questionable roads, political theatre and now a double dose of heartbreak that has left Detour HQ simmering like a pressure cooker.

The mood inside the office has shifted from frustration to full blown rivalry. Angus is still glowing from his near miss on Stage 2 and refuses to let the Heat Check cool. Dan is trying to thaw out from Ice Cold territory without drawing too much attention to himself after tipping Dylan at nice odds in stage 3. John is leaning on decades of racing instinct and refuses to concede an inch. The Detour supercomputer has been pushed harder than at any point this Giro and the poor thing is running so hot you could fry an egg on its hard drive.

We have argued about the Bulgarian trilogy all morning. The roads, the organisation, the atmosphere, the risk, the spectacle and the general sense that the Giro briefly turned into a geopolitical adventure. It has been wild, unpredictable and occasionally ridiculous, which means it has been perfect Giro viewing. Now the race moves on and so do we.

Stage 4 is here and the numbers are cooked.

THE DETOUR SHORTLIST

Three Categories. Three Riders Each. Real Odds. Real Insight.

1. The Genuine Contenders

Stage 4 features a long climb roughly forty kilometres from the finish which should be enough to remove the pure sprinters and leave the door open for the punchy climbers and the reduced group finishers.

Giulio Ciccone 51.00   Iffy has gone straight to Ciccone because this is exactly the kind of terrain he thrives on. He can handle the climb, he can attack from distance and he can win from a small group if the race becomes selective.

Corbin Strong 10.00   Iffy’s second play is Strong who becomes incredibly dangerous when the sprinters are gone and the GC riders are not interested in policing the finale. If the group is somewhere between twenty and forty riders he is absolutely in the mix.

Jhonatan Narvaez 13.00   Narvaez has already shown sharp form in this Giro and he is perfectly suited to a day that rewards resilience and timing. If the break does not stick he is one of the fastest finishers left. Dan likes this guy.

2. The Breakaway Wildcards

If the climb is raced aggressively and the bunch hesitates afterwards the breakaway becomes the winning move.

Giulio Pellizzari 126.00   Fearless, ambitious and built for chaos. If the break forms on the climb he is one of the strongest engines available.

Christian Scaroni 34.00   A steady diesel who can climb well enough to make the move and time trial well enough to hold it if the favourites start playing games.

Andrea Raccagni 126.00   A long shot with the legs to survive the climb and the freedom to attack late if the bunch miscalculates.

3. The Reduced Group Finishers

If the climb hurts the field but does not completely destroy it these riders become the most dangerous.

Antonio Morgado 34.00   Smart, versatile and capable of winning from a group of twenty. This profile suits him perfectly.

Jasper Stuyven 51.00   A veteran who thrives in messy finales. If the pace is inconsistent he becomes a real threat.

Orluis Aular 19.00   If he survives the climb he becomes one of the fastest finishers left and that makes him a genuine danger.

THE DETOUR READ

Stage 4 sits in that awkward Giro space where nobody is entirely sure who should take responsibility. The long climb forty kilometres from the finish is too hard for the pure sprinters but not hard enough for the GC riders to fully commit which creates a vacuum that invites chaos. If the climb is raced hard the sprinters disappear and the reduced group specialists take over. If the climb is steady the breakaway becomes the biggest threat. If the bunch hesitates the opportunists win.

It is a day where instinct matters as much as analysis and a day where one poorly timed chase can flip the entire script. The favourites are obvious but the value sits deeper than usual and the finale has the potential to produce another dramatic twist.

Inside Detour HQ the rivalry is now fully alive. The Bull wants redemption. The Bucks want their first win. Dan wants to thaw out. Angus wants to stay red hot. The supercomputer has done its job and the bets are locked in.

OLD BULL v YOUNG BUCKS — STAGE 4 PICKS

Old Bull John  

Pick: Giulio Ciccone

Odds: $51.00

Stake $20

Pick: Corbin Strong

Odds: $10.00

Stake: $10

Running balance $380

Young Bucks Angus and Dan  

Angus pick: Tobias Lund Andresen

Odds: $4.50

Stake $20

Dan pick: Jhonatan Narváez

Odds: $13.00

Stake: $20

Running balance $360